This seems an excellently direct, simple, and sane post-election take. I quite agree. I can only add that we desperately need to improve the education system and our attitudes towards it.
Great post! I don’t really buy the idea that the Democrats need a major course correction when it comes to policy. I do worry about the trend of educational polarization—the Democrats need to make it clear that they’re the party who offers a better future for Americans without college degrees. The policy is already there—they just need better messaging.
I think this is not a bad first approximation. Certainly, there have been all too many takes about how This One Thing changed the election's outcome, and there are at least a couple dozen One Things. I do agree that the personal pocketbook issue was huge.
However, I don't think it's correct to completely ignore the roles played by racism, misogyny, and xenophobia.
I mean this first in the narrower sense of a non-trivial fraction of the population being uncomfortable with voting for a woman, a person of color, a person whose parents were immigrants, and all possible combinations of those. It sucks, I hate it, but it is reality. I'm even sorrier to say that I suspect this is one of the things that kept some Democratic voters at home.
I mean it also in the larger sense of the non-stop message being hammered on by Trump, the whole us-versus-them thing. This message roused and rallied his base, and I'd bet anything it swung not a few undecided, low-information white voters. In particular, I think it is a mistake to ignore how high up on the list of issues "immigration" appears in practically every voter survey, and let's not forget how that has become a convenient codeword for a lot of deeper darker feelings.
I don't doubt that as with the anti-trans stuff, there are elements of Trump's core of support that are highly motivated by bigotry around race and gender. But I don't think that's the whole story, or even most of it-- it'll be a while yet before there's reliable polling about how various groups voted, but a lot of analyses of precinct-level results that I've seen only make sense if there was a significant swing toward Trump on the part of people who you would expect to be on the receiving end of that bigotry. That's pretty much got to be more economic in origin, and I think got him the popular-vote lead.
Again, I do agree with you about the economic aspect. But I think another thing we'll have to look at is the voter turnout -- why did so many Dems stay home?*
Also, given those maps that show the swing between 2020 and 2024 (nothing but red arrows), it seems to me that this has to be due in part to some combination of lower Dem turnout, fence-sitters being swayed perhaps for reasons beyond economic, and Republicans being more motivated to vote, less for Trump than against Harris.
In the end, I do agree with you that this is not "the whole story, or even most of it," but I do think it was close enough that the factors I'm talking about could have made the difference.
__________
* Semafor had a good article about how Dems actually failed to turn out only in safely red or blue states, so I will concede the possibility that Harris might have lost the electoral vote, even with better turnout, but she might well have won the popular vote, fwiw.
This seems an excellently direct, simple, and sane post-election take. I quite agree. I can only add that we desperately need to improve the education system and our attitudes towards it.
Great post! I don’t really buy the idea that the Democrats need a major course correction when it comes to policy. I do worry about the trend of educational polarization—the Democrats need to make it clear that they’re the party who offers a better future for Americans without college degrees. The policy is already there—they just need better messaging.
I think this is not a bad first approximation. Certainly, there have been all too many takes about how This One Thing changed the election's outcome, and there are at least a couple dozen One Things. I do agree that the personal pocketbook issue was huge.
However, I don't think it's correct to completely ignore the roles played by racism, misogyny, and xenophobia.
I mean this first in the narrower sense of a non-trivial fraction of the population being uncomfortable with voting for a woman, a person of color, a person whose parents were immigrants, and all possible combinations of those. It sucks, I hate it, but it is reality. I'm even sorrier to say that I suspect this is one of the things that kept some Democratic voters at home.
I mean it also in the larger sense of the non-stop message being hammered on by Trump, the whole us-versus-them thing. This message roused and rallied his base, and I'd bet anything it swung not a few undecided, low-information white voters. In particular, I think it is a mistake to ignore how high up on the list of issues "immigration" appears in practically every voter survey, and let's not forget how that has become a convenient codeword for a lot of deeper darker feelings.
I don't doubt that as with the anti-trans stuff, there are elements of Trump's core of support that are highly motivated by bigotry around race and gender. But I don't think that's the whole story, or even most of it-- it'll be a while yet before there's reliable polling about how various groups voted, but a lot of analyses of precinct-level results that I've seen only make sense if there was a significant swing toward Trump on the part of people who you would expect to be on the receiving end of that bigotry. That's pretty much got to be more economic in origin, and I think got him the popular-vote lead.
Again, I do agree with you about the economic aspect. But I think another thing we'll have to look at is the voter turnout -- why did so many Dems stay home?*
Also, given those maps that show the swing between 2020 and 2024 (nothing but red arrows), it seems to me that this has to be due in part to some combination of lower Dem turnout, fence-sitters being swayed perhaps for reasons beyond economic, and Republicans being more motivated to vote, less for Trump than against Harris.
In the end, I do agree with you that this is not "the whole story, or even most of it," but I do think it was close enough that the factors I'm talking about could have made the difference.
__________
* Semafor had a good article about how Dems actually failed to turn out only in safely red or blue states, so I will concede the possibility that Harris might have lost the electoral vote, even with better turnout, but she might well have won the popular vote, fwiw.
https://www.semafor.com/article/11/15/2024/democratic-turnout-plummeted-in-2024-but-only-in-safe-states