8 Comments
Mar 28Liked by Chad Orzel

What did I see in the first week of NC legalized sports betting? A player prop with over/under on turnovers. A college player! IMHO crossing not just one line, but really all of them.

That said, taking their free money and bonuses is no problem for me. With seven sites competing for business one strategy is taking the bonus bets and lay them off with other bonus bets on other sites. Sometimes with attractive middling results when their spreads don’t agree.

Or to spread that free money around in futures to enjoy for a while… If that $5 bonus bet to see Duke play NC State in the Elite 8 for $300 pays off, I’ll be happy in multiple ways. Kid winning a semester’s tuition on $10 bonus bet for NC State going all the way, we’ll take it. Free money multiplied by 4.5x if Duke wins a men’s lacrosse title, knock me out. Celtics to win the NBA, Cubs to win their division, pay me with your free money for what I want to see anyway and that gives me plenty of action to enjoy the rest of the season.

But betting on the type of next basket, next scorer, final score even or odd, I’ll leave that to those who I hope get help.

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I'm with you. I thought that prohibition was absurd and arbitrary, and I guess philosophically I still do, but those prop bets are so manipulable (will the National Anthem go more than two minutes? Will the first shot attempt be a three? ...) and the ads so annoying, but more importantly, the web of debt some people will get into is going to be nearly incalculable. I have a friend whose family member got into a serious gambling addiction well before it was so easy and it is as bad as any addiction that there is. Prizepicks isn't going to break your kneecaps, but it will drain every account you allow it to, and of course young people in particular are susceptible. We both knew guys in college with Daddy's money and a cocksure attitude about their sports knowledge who would have gotten in real trouble with this. I like to bet a little in Vegas, knowing how much I can lose, and at least knowing that I'll lose $50 over three hours rather than ten minutes at the tables. And of course I write enough about sports, including wearing a journalist's hat that i could easily be tempted to believe that I am a sports knower with some special insight. Usually a weekend in vewgas disabuses me of that belief.

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I was recently reading a book by Tim Palmer called “the primacy of doubt” on page 18 he writes about nonlinear systems and uses the lottery as an example: “nonlinear systems are those whose outputs do not change in direct proportion to their inputs.Assuming you are not a wealthy person, you would be very happy indeed to win $1 million in the lottery. You would be even happier to win $2 million but likely not twice as happy. You would very likely not be ten times as happy to win $10 million. That’s an example of nonlinearity your happiness (output) does not vary in direct proportion to your lottery winnings (output) does not vary in direct proportion to your lottery winnings (input). As a physicist would you say that is a good example of a non linear system? (I also have heard people using traffic as an example of a nonlinear system)

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I feel the same way but think of my attitude as "neoLiberal," not "reactionary." :)

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